Future shock and the rise of futurbulences
In 1970, Alvin Toffler introduced the concept of Future Shock, predicting that accelerating technological change would push society into a state of shock and disorientation. Today, we face a new phenomenon: the impacts of futurbulences—the failure of positive futures to arrive. We live in a multipolar world overwhelmed by large-scale issues that refuse to fade and instead multiply rapidly. Disasters from climate change, hybrid conflicts, economic and migratory crises, social and technological transformations and dramatic shifts in consumer behaviors all point to a turbulent era where yesterday’s assumptions no longer hold.
Disruption and the “epistemic dead angle”
Futurbulences disrupt our sense of continuity, exposing what Toffler might have called our “epistemic dead angles,” or the blind spots in our understanding of the world. These disruptions, arriving with unexpected speed, challenge assumptions about the future and test our capacity to adapt. Complex and hybrid in nature, they catch leaders unprepared, often rendered ineffective by “sense jamming”—a cognitive state in which their ability to respond meaningfully is impaired by the sheer speed and unpredictability of events.
Understanding futurbulences: metaphors for disruption
Futurbulences can be understood through metaphor. They are like the tip of an iceberg: visible disruptions that reveal underlying complexities previously unseen. Our society, built on predictability and stability, resembles a precarious Jenga tower, where each futurbulent event is another block removed, pushing us closer to collapse. Much like a sudden storm or a warp in finely woven cloth, futurbulences disrupt the calm surface of societal expectations, exposing vulnerabilities within our structures. They act as plot twists that derail our assumptions, shifting sands that undermine foundations and rude awakenings that snap us out of complacency. Each of these disruptions highlights systemic flaws, revealing a fragility we may have taken for granted.
Continuity assumptions and their fragility
Modern Global North societies, built on expectations of continuity and stability, are especially susceptible to futurbulences. These disruptions signal a fundamental shift: the future we were promised has not come to pass and something valuable from the past has been lost or eroded in the process. This realization brings disorientation, even grief, as we face an unpredictable world that often fails to align with our hopes. Some cling to narratives of limitless growth or conspiracy theories, while others confront the stark reality that we are facing challenges affecting every aspect of society. From our global supply chains to the very balance of Holocene weather patterns, the post-WWII “Trente Glorieuses” period of prosperity is a distant memory. Instead, we face an increasingly unstable world that brings escalating challenges.
Extreme events: from climate change to COVID-19
Scientists have been warning for decades about climate change and climate injustice, yet it took extreme events like hurricanes, wildfires and record-breaking heatwaves to shift public awareness. These events disrupt our sense of continuity, revealing the shortcomings of our systems to address or correct our trajectory. Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic arrived unexpectedly, exposing our blind spots and challenging assumptions about health, safety, work, education and the importance of robust public infrastructure. The pandemic highlighted weaknesses in healthcare systems and deep social inequalities that had gone unaddressed for too long.
Confronting systemic failures and externalities
As Toffler once said, “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.” Futurbulences bring this idea into sharp focus, especially as Global North societies confront the often unseen costs of capitalism and its harmful externalities. For those who believed they were shielded from such consequences, these events reveal the far-reaching impact of unsustainable practices. They disrupt illusions of security and demand a hard look at the costs of unchecked growth, exposing the fragility of systems based on exploitation and inequality.
Futurbulences as a mirror to societal imbalance
Futurbulences act as a mirror, reflecting the imbalances and injustices embedded within global structures and underscoring the interconnectedness of societies. They puncture bubbles of privilege and complacency, underscoring the need for collective responsibility and action. This confrontation with a turbulent future can trigger cognitive dissonance, as individuals struggle to reconcile their expectations with unfolding realities. This dissonance often leads to resistance, denial, or helplessness, which can hinder efforts to address these new challenges.
Futurbulences: the aftershocks of Future Shock
Futurbulences serve as the aftershocks of Future Shock, manifesting as long-term consequences of rapid technological change, systemic injustice and global disruptions. They shake our assumptions, values and ways of life, forcing us to reconsider our path forward. Responding effectively to futurbulences requires early anticipation, collective sense-making and, above all, a recalibration of our worldviews and frameworks for understanding. Only by adapting our mental models and developing new ways of making sense of a complex world can we confront these emerging challenges and navigate an uncertain future.